Sales Agreed Fall for Four Months as UK Property Supply Hits a 10-Year High

UK homebuyers are entering an unusual market. Mortgage pricing has moved against borrowers again, but the property market itself is showing clearer signs of shifting towards buyers, with four consecutive months of weaker sales-agreed activity and the supply of newly listed homes at its highest level in a decade.

TwentyCi's latest market update shows sales agreed were approximately 8% lower year on year in both May and June, 5% lower in July and 6% lower in August. Across the first eight months of 2026, agreed sales were 5.4% below the equivalent period in 2025.

At the same time, newly listed properties were 2.1% higher year on year and have reached their highest level for 10 years. TwentyCi describes the combination of increasing supply and softer demand as creating a more buyer-friendly market.

That does not mean every seller will accept a lower offer, nor does it mean property prices must fall uniformly. It does mean buyers increasingly need to consider the mortgage and the property negotiation as two parts of the same transaction rather than viewing financing costs in isolation.

Buyers Now Have Two Markets to Negotiate

The mortgage market and the property market are currently sending buyers different signals.

Mortgage pricing has become more difficult again as wholesale funding costs have risen and lenders have repriced fixed-rate products. That increases the monthly and annual cost of financing a purchase.

The property market, however, is becoming more competitive between sellers. More homes are available while fewer properties are reaching an agreed sale compared with the same period last year.

For a buyer, those movements should not be considered separately. A higher mortgage rate is clearly a cost, but so is paying £50,000 or £100,000 more than necessary for the underlying property.

More Stock Changes the Buyer's Position

Property supply matters because buyers make decisions relative to the alternatives available.

When suitable homes are scarce, a buyer who finds the right property may have little negotiating room. Walking away can mean waiting months for something comparable to appear.

A market with more listings changes that calculation. If several suitable properties are available, the buyer can compare not only asking prices but seller motivation, time on market, property condition, chain position and willingness to accommodate the buyer's timetable.

That can make the ability to proceed confidently more valuable.

A buyer who knows exactly how much they can borrow, what deposit is required and which lender route is realistic can make an offer with fewer financing uncertainties attached. The negotiation itself remains between buyer, seller and their respective agents, but a credible funding position can strengthen the buyer's ability to execute once terms are agreed.

Falling Sales Agreed Matter More Than Completed Transactions for Today's Buyer

One reason the current housing market can appear contradictory is that completed transaction data still looks relatively resilient.

HMRC's non-seasonally adjusted figures showed residential transactions in July running above the same month of 2025. TwentyCi's sales-agreed data, however, points to weaker activity further up the transaction pipeline.

That distinction matters because a completion taking place today can relate to a purchase agreed several months earlier.

Sales-agreed data is therefore a more immediate indicator of how buyers and sellers are interacting now. Four consecutive months of weaker agreed sales suggests the current pipeline has softened even if completions continue to reflect earlier market conditions.

The Buyer With Finance Arranged Can Use Certainty as Part of the Offer

Price is not the only consideration for a seller.

A seller who has already experienced a failed transaction, needs to complete by a particular date or is buying another property themselves may place considerable value on a buyer who appears capable of completing.

That does not mean obtaining an agreement in principle guarantees a mortgage, nor should buyers represent funding as unconditional when it is not. Valuation, underwriting, legal work and final lender approval remain necessary.

But there is an important difference between a buyer who has discussed their circumstances properly and identified a credible lender route and somebody who plans to investigate the mortgage after an offer has been accepted.

In a more negotiable property market, finance preparation can therefore support the wider acquisition strategy.

A £1m Purchase Illustrates Why Price and Rate Need to Be Considered Together

Suppose a buyer is considering a property marketed at £1m and intends to borrow 70% of the purchase price.

At the full asking price, the mortgage would be £700,000 and the buyer would provide £300,000 before transaction costs.

If the property can instead be purchased for £950,000 and the buyer maintains a 70% loan-to-value, the mortgage falls to £665,000. The buyer requires £285,000 of equity and starts with £35,000 less mortgage debt.

That reduction affects not only the initial borrowing but the interest charged on that debt for as long as it remains outstanding.

The illustration is deliberately simple and does not account for product fees, taxes, changing LTV bands or the fact that some buyers may choose to keep the same mortgage amount and retain more liquidity. It demonstrates why focusing exclusively on whether the mortgage rate has moved by 10 or 20 basis points can miss a larger financial variable: the purchase price itself.

For a £2m Purchase, Negotiation Becomes Even More Material

The same principle becomes more significant as property values increase.

A 5% reduction from a £2m asking price is £100,000. On a £3m property it is £150,000.

That does not mean buyers should mechanically offer 5% below every asking price. Some properties will already be realistically priced, some will attract competing bids and others will be sufficiently scarce that attempting to negotiate aggressively simply loses the property.

But at higher values, buyers should understand the absolute financial significance of the property negotiation alongside the financing negotiation.

For a Willow client borrowing £1m, £1.5m or £2m against a purchase, a modest movement in both the asset price and debt structure can produce substantial differences in overall cost.

Flats Are Showing the Largest Deterioration in Demand Versus Supply

TwentyCi's latest data shows the demand-to-supply balance weakening across all major property types, but flats recorded the largest deterioration, at 13.2% year on year.

That is particularly relevant in London and other large urban markets where flats represent a substantial part of the available housing stock.

Again, national or market-wide data should not be applied mechanically to an individual property. A well-located, correctly priced flat with a long lease, sensible service charge and strong specification can behave very differently from a compromised property in an oversupplied local market.

The wider data nevertheless gives buyers a reason to investigate the seller's position rather than assuming the asking price is fixed.

More Choice Does Not Remove Property-Specific Risk

A softer market can tempt buyers to focus primarily on the discount achieved.

That can be a mistake.

A property may have remained unsold because the asking price is ambitious, but it can also have lease, construction, cladding, title, valuation or condition issues that affect mortgageability.

A large discount is of limited value if the buyer subsequently discovers that mainstream lenders will not accept the property or that substantial works are required.

Finance and property due diligence therefore need to progress together. A buyer should understand not merely whether they can afford the agreed price but whether lenders are likely to accept the asset on which the mortgage depends.

Mortgage Repricing Makes the Maximum Purchase Price More Important

The timing of TwentyCi's data is particularly interesting because it coincides with renewed pressure on fixed mortgage rates.

A borrower who calculated affordability several weeks ago may now find that the mortgage required for the same purchase carries a higher monthly cost.

That does not automatically mean the purchase no longer works.

It can mean the buyer needs to revisit the other variables. Could the property price be negotiated? Should the deposit be changed? Does another lender assess the income more favourably? Would a different fixed period or repayment structure fit better? Is the buyer still comfortable with the transaction if rates remain at the current level?

The correct response to a changing mortgage market is not necessarily to stop buying. It is to recalculate the transaction using current information.

Do Not Assume Waiting Produces a Better Outcome

A buyer may reasonably look at softer demand and conclude that waiting another six months will create even greater negotiating power.

It might. It might not.

Mortgage rates could rise or fall. Property supply could continue to increase or begin to contract. Sellers could become more flexible or simply withdraw properties rather than accept lower prices. A particular home that suits the buyer may no longer be available.

The relevant question is therefore not whether today's market is the theoretical bottom for property prices or mortgage rates. Neither can be known in advance.

The practical question is whether a particular property at a particular negotiated price, financed on terms available today, works for the buyer's circumstances and expected ownership period.

Prime Buyers Can Have More Than One Funding Route

For higher-value purchases, mortgage strategy can extend beyond a conventional repayment loan.

A buyer may have significant investment assets, bonus income, business interests or future liquidity that makes interest-only or part-and-part borrowing worth considering. Some larger transactions can also justify comparison with private-bank lending or other appropriate HNW borrowing structures.

The availability of alternatives does not mean the transaction needs to be complicated. A conventional residential mortgage can still be the most suitable and cost-effective answer.

But when a buyer is negotiating a £2m or £3m property, it makes sense to understand the funding universe before deciding how much capital to commit to the purchase.

Cash Buyers Should Also Consider the Cost of Using Cash

The same reasoning can apply to buyers capable of purchasing without a mortgage.

Paying cash removes mortgage interest and can make the transaction straightforward, but it also commits a substantial amount of liquidity to the property.

A buyer with £3m available does not necessarily have to choose between borrowing the maximum and borrowing nothing. They might compare a full cash purchase with a modest mortgage, an interest-only facility or another suitable structure that preserves part of their liquidity.

The decision depends on the cost of borrowing, the purpose of the retained capital, risk tolerance and the buyer's wider financial position. Where investments or other financial assets are involved, appropriate investment advice should be obtained separately.

The Strongest Offer Is Not Always the Highest Offer

In a market with more sellers competing for fewer active buyers, transaction quality can matter.

A seller may receive one offer at £1.5m from a buyer who has not sold their existing home and has not investigated financing, and another slightly lower offer from a chain-free buyer whose mortgage route has already been assessed.

There is no rule that determines which offer the seller will prefer. Some will always prioritise price.

But certainty, speed and chain position can become negotiating variables alongside the headline figure.

That gives mortgage preparation a role before the property negotiation is finished, rather than after it.

Buyers Returning to the Market May Find the Balance Has Changed

Some purchasers stepped away from the market earlier in 2026 because the right property was unavailable, sellers would not negotiate or mortgage costs were uncomfortable.

Those buyers should not assume the calculation remains unchanged.

Mortgage pricing may have moved against them, but property availability has increased and buyer demand has softened. A property that attracted several interested parties earlier in the year may now face less competition. Another seller may have become more realistic after months on the market.

For a buyer whose first offer was rejected earlier in the year, it can therefore be worth reassessing both the property and the finance rather than considering only one side of the equation.

Finance Should Be Established Before the Buyer Needs Negotiating Certainty

The mortgage should ideally be assessed before a serious offer is made, particularly where the loan is large or the borrower's circumstances are not entirely straightforward.

That means establishing the realistic mortgage range, likely deposit, affordability position, lender criteria and any property restrictions early enough to inform the purchase strategy.

For a borrower requiring £1m or more, this can be especially important. Large-loan lender appetite, interest-only criteria, bonus treatment and maximum loan-to-value can vary significantly.

The buyer then knows where their genuine financial limit sits before a negotiation becomes emotional.

What Should a Buyer Review in the Current Market?

A Buyer-Friendly Market Is Not the Same as a Cheap Market

The distinction matters.

TwentyCi's data indicates that the balance between demand and supply has shifted in buyers' favour. It does not establish that every UK property is cheap or that every seller is under pressure.

Mortgage costs remain significant, transaction taxes can be substantial at higher values and some sought-after properties remain scarce.

The opportunity lies in having more variables to work with.

A buyer may be able to negotiate on price, timing, included fixtures or other commercial terms. They may have a wider choice of properties and therefore less pressure to overpay simply because nothing comparable is available.

That is useful negotiating leverage, but it still needs to be applied selectively to the individual transaction.

How Willow Private Finance Can Help

Willow Private Finance works with homebuyers across straightforward and complex residential purchases, including higher-value mortgages, bonus and complex income, interest-only borrowing, foreign nationals, expatriates and clients whose wider assets make several financing routes worth comparing.

In the current market, establishing the mortgage position early can do more than prevent a financing problem later. It can give the buyer a clear understanding of the debt available, the deposit required and the monthly cost before they decide how aggressively to pursue a particular property.

For larger purchases, we can also assess whether a conventional residential mortgage remains the most appropriate structure or whether other relevant large-loan or private-bank routes should be compared.

Willow does not negotiate the property price on the client's behalf. That remains a matter for the buyer and their buying or estate agent. Our role is to make sure the financing side is sufficiently clear that the client can make the property decision from a position of financial certainty.