Across the United Kingdom, the housing market is displaying a mix of resilience and caution as the Autumn 2025 Budget approaches. House prices have remained broadly stable or edged up modestly in recent months, defying some expectations of a downturntheguardian.comreuters.com. Nationwide Building Society reported a 0.3% monthly rise in October and annual growth of about 2.4%theguardian.comreuters.com. Similarly, Halifax recorded a 0.6% jump in October – the strongest monthly gain since January – leaving prices about 1.9% higher year-on-yearbuiltplace.com. However, asking prices tell a flatter story: property portal Rightmove noted that the usual autumn “bounce” failed to materialize, with average asking prices 0.1% lower than a year agorightmove.co.ukrightmove.co.uk. This suggests that while headline indices show mild growth, sellers have limited power to push prices higher in the current climate.

Multiple indicators point to a subdued market tempo. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) reports that buyer inquiries, sales volumes, and new listings have all been in negative territory through late summer and early autumnrics.orgrics.org. In its September survey, RICS found new buyer enquiries and agreed sales were both declining (net balances of -19% and -16% respectively), and near-term expectations remain mutedrics.orgrics.org. Surveyors noted that “subdued momentum continued to characterise the housing market” and foresee little improvement before early 2026rics.orgrics.org. Regionally, a divergence persists: parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland are still seeing modest price gains, while southern England is under more downward pressurerics.orgbuiltplace.com. London and the South East, in particular, have experienced slight annual price falls in recent monthsbuiltplace.com, dragged down by higher costs and a surplus of properties for salerightmove.co.ukrightmove.co.uk. In contrast, many northern regions and devolved nations continue to register small annual price rises, reflecting more resilient demandrightmove.co.uk.

Despite the overall cooling from last year’s activity, market fundamentals show pockets of strength. The number of agreed sales so far in 2025 is actually up about 5% compared to the same period in 2024, according to Rightmove datarightmove.co.ukrightmove.co.uk. Mortgage approvals have also held up better than anticipated – Bank of England figures for September showed purchase approvals slightly above year-ago levels and just 1% below the pre-pandemic averagebuiltplace.com. “If the housing market is one thing, it is resilient,” commented one market analyst, noting that prices remain near record highs even though mortgage rates are roughly double their pre-Covid levelstheguardian.com. This resilience is partly thanks to the broader economic backdrop improving from earlier in the cycle. Consumer price inflation has eased (3.8% in the year to September)builtplace.com, and the Bank of England has begun trimming interest rates after reaching a peak last yeartheguardian.comtheguardian.com. The central bank cut its base rate in August and was expected to reduce it further in November, which is helping steady buyer confidencetheguardian.com. Borrowing costs for new mortgages have indeed started to edge down – the average effective mortgage rate on new loans fell to about 4.2% in Septemberbuiltplace.com – offering a glimmer of relief for prospective buyers. Nevertheless, affordability remains stretched: mortgage rates are still far above the ultra-low levels of the 2010s, and subdued wage growth alongside high home prices continues to challenge affordability for many householdstheguardian.com. With consumer confidence still fragile and some signs of a softening job market, experts say it is unsurprising that housing demand is not surgingtheguardian.comreuters.com. In short, the UK market is entering the budget period on a cautiously stable footing – holding firm but lacking momentum, as buyers and sellers await clearer signals.

Homebuyers and First-Time Buyers: Challenges and Adjustments

For everyday homebuyers – especially first-time purchasers – the mood is one of guarded optimism tempered by ongoing hurdles. Would-be buyers have gained a degree of “purchase power” compared to the frenetic market of recent years, thanks to a growing stock of properties for sale and slightly softer pricing in some areasrightmove.co.ukrightmove.co.uk. Estate agents across the country report that today’s buyers have more choice and can negotiate harder, forcing serious sellers to moderate their price expectationsrightmove.co.uk. However, this more favorable bargaining position comes amid persistent affordability strains. High interest rates and inflation have eroded what buyers can afford, leading many to take a cautious “wait-and-see” approach. “Homebuyers [are] sit[ting] on the sidelines waiting to see what next month’s budget will bring,” observed one housing analysttheguardian.com. Analysts suggest that speculation about potential property tax changes has some buyers, particularly at the mid- to upper-end, pausing plans until the fiscal picture is clearertheguardian.comrightmove.co.uk. This sentiment is echoed in Zoopla’s latest market update: the property portal notes “budget uncertainty is prompting buyers to ‘wait and see’”, contributing to an annual decline in sales agreed for the first time in two yearsbuiltplace.com. Zoopla found buyer demand this autumn is about 8% lower than last year, with the slowdown most pronounced in higher-value marketsbuiltplace.com.

First-time buyers (FTBs) face the familiar dual challenges of expensive house prices and stringent mortgage costs – yet there are signs of adaptation. A significant policy change earlier in 2025 altered the landscape for new buyers: in April, the government rolled back the temporary Stamp Duty relief, lowering the price threshold for FTB exemption from £425,000 to £300,000. This prompted a surge of activity in late spring as many rushed to beat the tax hikebusiness-money.com. Barclays’ internal mortgage data shows the share of first-time buyer purchases under £300,000 jumped from ~61% in April to 72% in May as buyers trimmed budgets to minimize taxbusiness-money.com. In the months since, FTB buying patterns have slowly normalized – by September about 64% of first-time purchases were sub-£300k, suggesting the cohort has adjusted to the new Stamp Duty rulesbusiness-money.combusiness-money.com. With the initial shock past, stamp duty now looms slightly less large in the minds of new buyers: only 8% of prospective first-timers cite Stamp Duty as a major barrier to ownership, down from 11% back in Aprilbusiness-money.com. Far bigger worries are the upfront deposit and high living costs. In fact, the cost of raising a deposit has overtaken property prices as the number-one concern among renters aspiring to buy, according to Barclays’ researchbusiness-money.combusiness-money.com. Around 41% of renters now say saving a sufficient deposit is their biggest obstacle, compared to 39% who point to house pricesbusiness-money.com. Other factors like the ability to get a mortgage on current income lag behind in the list of concerns (only 19% cite mortgage access as a top barrier, thanks in part to recent regulatory tweaks to ease affordability tests)business-money.com.

Encouragingly, there are glimmers of improved sentiment among younger buyers. The proportion of renters who believe they can achieve homeownership in the next five years has edged up to 27%, from 22% a couple of months priorbusiness-money.com. A growing number are actively saving for a deposit, spurred by the slight cooling in house prices and hopes that mortgage rates may gradually fallbusiness-money.com. Lenders holding rates steady or trimming them has provided some relief – the Bank of England’s base rate was held at 4% in September, and expectations of future rate cuts are beginning to buoy confidence that buying will become more affordablebusiness-money.comtheguardian.com. Indeed, Nationwide’s chief economist, Robert Gardner, notes that despite “subdued consumer confidence”, the housing market’s stability in recent months is a sign of underlying “resilience”. He expects affordability to improve modestly going forward if wage growth continues to outpace house price growth and borrowing costs ease furthertheguardian.comreuters.com. In the meantime, many first-time buyers are recalibrating their expectations: targeting smaller or lower-priced homes, or delaying purchases until they feel financially secure. The good news is that government and regulatory efforts – such as improved mortgage accessibility and potential first-time buyer incentives – remain in focus, so this segment is watching the Budget closely for any support. Overall, the first-time buyer sentiment can be described as cautiously hopeful: aware of the uphill battle, yet more prepared and adaptive than they were a year ago.

Buy-to-Let Investors: Landlords Face Tax Jitters and Tight Supply

Sentiment among buy-to-let landlords and property investors is notably strained as they await the Autumn Budget. Years of accumulated tax and regulatory pressures have made the private rental sector more challenging, and speculation about further tax changes is creating palpable anxiety in this communitynrla.org.uknrla.org.uk. The National Residential Landlords Association (NRLA) warns that any new tax hikes on rental properties would be counterproductive, arguing that the sector is already “overburdened by regulation and taxation” after a decade of tighter rulespropertymark.co.uk. In a briefing ahead of the Budget, the NRLA cautioned that “landlords are facing yet more speculation about tax hikes that would hinder investment, reduce supply, and ultimately drive up rents”nrla.org.uk. This reflects fears that the Chancellor could increase taxes on landlords – whether through higher stamp duty surcharges, changes to capital gains tax on property sales, or even new levies on rental income. Such concerns have many landlords adopting a defensive stance, holding off on expanding portfolios or even considering selling, until policy clarity emerges.

Market data underscore the pressure in the rental sector as landlords retrench. The RICS September survey showed landlord instructions (new rental listings) plummeted to their lowest levels since the first COVID lockdown, with a net balance of -38% – indicating a sharp drop in rental supplyrics.org. At the same time, tenant demand remains robust (broadly flat to slightly rising)rics.org. This mismatch is driving rents upward at an uncomfortable pace for tenants: rents are forecast to rise around 3% in the next year nationally, and official indices already show private rents running ~5% higher than a year agorics.orgbuiltplace.com. Landlords exiting the market – often due to slimmed profits from higher mortgage rates or disillusionment with policy changes – are a big part of this story. Trade bodies note that the erosion of tax reliefs (such as the phased removal of mortgage interest deductibility under Section 24), the 3% stamp duty surcharge on additional homes, and upcoming energy efficiency mandates have squeezed out many smaller landlordspropertymark.co.ukpropertymark.co.uk. According to industry data, the stock of homes available to rent is down about 10% compared to 2019, even as tenant demand has surged by over 20% in that periodnrla.org.uk. This supply crunch means remaining landlords can often find tenants readily, but it also means would-be renters face intense competition and rising costs – outcomes that policymakers are under pressure to address.

With this backdrop, landlords and their representatives are vocal about what they hope (and hope not) to see in the Budget. The NRLA is imploring the government to refrain from any new tax grabs on the sector, arguing that the private rented sector “is a vital driver of economic opportunity” by enabling labor mobility and providing homes for 11 million rentersnrla.org.uknrla.org.uk. Instead of punitive measures, landlord groups are calling for some relief to stem the landlord exodus. Propertymark, an industry body, has gone as far as recommending the reinstatement of full mortgage interest relief for individual landlords and a review of all landlord taxes to “support long-term investment and stabilise supply”propertymark.co.ukpropertymark.co.uk. They also caution against mooted ideas like applying National Insurance to rental income, which they say would “worsen affordability and drive landlords out” of the marketpropertymark.co.uk. While it’s unlikely the Budget will fulfill every landlord wish, even the absence of new taxes would come as a relief to this segment. Until the announcements on 26 November, however, uncertainty reigns. Many portfolio investors have managed to weather recent challenges (indeed, some larger landlords have been snapping up properties sold by smaller landlords exiting the market, sustaining buy-to-let sales this yearlandlordzone.co.uk). But overall confidence among landlords is low – reflected in NRLA’s Landlord Confidence Index which has trended down – and investment in rental supply is stalling. The hope in the sector is that the Autumn Budget at least does no further harm, and ideally offers incentives or signals to arrest the decline in rental supply. Until then, prudent landlords are tightening their belts, and renters are bracing for further rent hikes if the balance of supply and demand does not improve.

Prime and High-Net-Worth Market: Waiting Out Uncertainty

In the prime property segment – high-value homes and the wealthy buyers/investors who typically drive this market – sentiment has slumped to its weakest level in years as the Budget nears. A recent Savills survey of nearly 1,000 prime buyers and sellers found that 37% are now less committed to a purchase in the next six months specifically because of tax speculation, the highest level of caution in five yearstheintermediary.co.uktheintermediary.co.uk. Only a scant 10% of respondents said they were more eager to move in the near term, highlighting a widespread “wait-and-see” attitude at the top endtheintermediary.co.uk. According to Lucian Cook, Savills’ head of residential research, “Speculation that the Chancellor could announce changes to property tax in the Autumn Budget has further slowed down an already price-sensitive prime housing market”, making it increasingly reliant on buyers who need to move rather than those who merely want totheintermediary.co.uk. In effect, discretionary activity has dried up. Many high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) are postponing decisions, unwilling to transact until they know whether new levies on expensive properties or second homes will materializetheintermediary.co.uktheintermediary.co.uk. “Buyers and sellers have been left trying to make sense of what different measures might mean for them without any guarantee of what is going to prevail,” Cook explainstheintermediary.co.uk. The mere discussion of possible tax reforms – even before anything is enacted – has, as he notes, “curtailed the autumn market” at the prime endtheintermediary.co.uk.

This hesitation is directly impacting prices in luxury postcodes. Prime central London values fell by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2025, the sharpest quarterly drop since 2016, according to Savills datatheintermediary.co.uk. After several years of gentle decline or stagnation, prices in ultra-prime central areas are now cumulatively about 24% below their peak in 2014theintermediary.co.uk. The downturn is most acute for the super-prime bracket (properties £10 million and above), where the pool of buyers has dwindled. Some of that is due to earlier policy changes – for example, the abolition of the non-domiciled tax status has reduced international buyer interest at the very top endtheintermediary.co.uk. Now, add Budget jitters: even those elite buyers who remain are increasingly hesitant to act before the fiscal outlook is clarifiedtheintermediary.co.uk. Frances McDonald, another Savills research director, notes that the “most discretionary, top end of the market (£10m-plus) is experiencing the greatest downward pressure on prices” because wealthy buyers are essentially on pausetheintermediary.co.uktheintermediary.co.uk. She adds that there is still an undercurrent of opportunistic demand – some cash-rich buyers are circling to “capitalise on the historic value” available after recent price fallstheintermediary.co.uk. However, any recovery in prime values is likely delayed until after tax decisions are made and absorbed by the markettheintermediary.co.uk.

Outside London, a similar pattern holds in upscale regional markets. High-value country homes and second-home markets have also been hit by policy uncertainty. Ongoing chatter about council tax reform (such as harsher charges on second homes or holiday lets) and other additional taxation is weighing on prime country house pricestheintermediary.co.uk. Over the past year, prime regional values are down ~3–4% on average, with previously hot rural and coastal areas cooling the mosttheintermediary.co.uktheintermediary.co.uk. In fact, Savills notes that city markets (e.g. affluent urban areas like Edinburgh, Glasgow, York, Cheltenham) have outperformed country locales, as urban demand from domestic buyers is steadier while second-home demand weakenstheintermediary.co.uk. Still, even in cities, the top end is not immune to tax nerves. One anecdotal example: in West London’s wealthy enclaves, agents describe the market as “sluggish, particularly at the higher end”, with buyers cautious about over-paying when fiscal changes could be imminenttheguardian.com. It’s telling that only needs-based transactions are driving the prime market now – e.g. families who must relocate or upsize are proceeding, but those who might trade simply for investment or lifestyle are inclined to wait. The sentiment among HNW buyers can thus be summed up as defensive patience. They are carefully watching the Autumn Budget for signals:

Will there be a new mansion tax or capital gains on expensive primary residences?

An extension of the 3% stamp duty surcharge?

Or perhaps relief in other areas?

Until these questions are answered, the prime segment is largely in a holding pattern. As Savills’ Lucian Cook observes, any significant tax changes would need time for the market to absorb, likely postponing a recovery rally in high-end prices until well into 2026theintermediary.co.uk. In the meantime, the five-year low in prime market sentiment speaks volumes about how policy uncertainty can chill activity at the top of the laddertheintermediary.co.uk.

Policy Expectations and Budget Speculation

The approach of the 26 November Budget has the entire property sector buzzing with speculation about potential tax and housing policy changes. Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) sits front and center in these discussions. This transaction tax has long been criticized for stifling market mobility, and industry voices are urging reform. Property professionals widely view the April 2025 Stamp Duty adjustment – which raised taxes on many first-time buyers and mid-range homes by letting the earlier pandemic-era relief expire – as having cooled the market, and they are keen to see corrective measures. Rightmove’s property expert noted that Stamp Duty is “one of the biggest barriers to movement” in the housing market and revealed the portal has been “calling for stamp duty reform for some time now”, even advocating abolishing it entirelyrightmove.co.uk. Trade bodies echo that sentiment: Propertymark argues that the current £300k relief for first-time buyers is “insufficient in many parts of the country” and that lowering Stamp Duty or at least updating its brackets more frequently would immediately help boost transactionspropertymark.co.uk. They suggest targeted relief for certain groups – for instance, permanent SDLT exemptions for downsizing retirees to encourage freeing up family homespropertymark.co.uk. These groups want the Chancellor to prioritize market fluidity over Treasury take, warning that heavy-handed property taxes can backfire by freezing up activitypropertymark.co.uk.

At the same time, there is acknowledgment that changes to property taxation could cut both ways. Rumors have swirled that the new Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is contemplating a major overhaul – possibly even scrapping Stamp Duty in favor of a different system. One report suggested Treasury officials had floated a new tax on home sales above £500,000 as an alternativetheguardian.com. Such a move, if it happened, might shift the burden toward higher-end transactions or effectively function like a capital gains tax on pricier homes. The mere hint of this has contributed to the prime market jitters noted earlier. Propertymark explicitly cautions against extending Capital Gains Tax (CGT) to primary residences or broadly hiking property CGT rates again, arguing it would “risk further stagnation in the property market” by deterring owners from sellingpropertymark.co.uk. Indeed, when CGT rates were raised in the last Budget (spring 2025), sales of second homes dropped as owners chose to hold assets rather than pay the higher taxpropertymark.co.uk. Extending such taxes to main homes, in the industry’s view, could lock up mobility for those who need to move for work or family, ultimately reducing supply and market turnoverpropertymark.co.uk.

Landlord taxation is another hot topic. Buy-to-let investors fear being an easy target for revenue-raising, having already weathered increased stamp duty and reduced mortgage relief in recent years. There is talk that the Budget could impose additional taxes on landlords – one speculation being whether National Insurance could be applied to rental income (a proposal landlords strongly oppose)propertymark.co.uk. The NRLA and others implore the government to instead consider incentives that would help tenants indirectly by keeping landlords in the market. Suggestions include reinstating some tax reliefs (like mortgage interest offset or the Landlord’s Energy Saving Allowance) and avoiding any new surchargespropertymark.co.ukpropertymark.co.uk. As the NRLA put it, the focus should be on “back[ing] responsible landlords who provide good homes” rather than driving them away with higher taxesnrla.org.uk. They note that 25% of new homeowners come from the private rented sector, far more than from social housing, implying that a healthy private rental market is integral to the housing laddernrla.org.uk. Any policy that further shrinks that sector could thus have knock-on effects on housing availability and affordability for everyone.

Beyond taxes, broader housing policy signals are also influencing sentiment. The government has indicated housing supply and homeownership remain priorities, which gives some hope that the Budget might include measures to spur construction or assist buyers (such as new investment in housebuilding, adjustments to affordability schemes, or extensions of mortgage guarantees). There have even been whispers of radical ideas – for example, some politicians have floated replacing Stamp Duty with a proportional annual property tax or revamping Council Tax to reflect current values. While such sweeping reforms are unlikely to be implemented overnight, the fact they are “on the table” adds to the sense that the status quo in property taxation is under reviewrightmove.co.uk. In the words of Rightmove’s expert, “It’s encouraging that housing continues to be a political priority with some radical changes being suggested”, and the industry is keen to see steps that “make it easier for all involved” in buying and sellingrightmove.co.uk.

In sum, the Autumn 2025 Budget is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for the UK property market psyche. Optimism and trepidation are in the air in equal measure. Buyers, sellers, and investors are combing through every hint from Westminster – from ministerial comments to leaked proposals – to gauge what might come. This has, in many respects, put parts of the market into a holding pattern in the short termtheintermediary.co.uk. The consensus among experts is that clarity, whichever direction it takes, will be better than protracted uncertainty. As Barclays’ head of mortgages Jatin Patel advises, policy shifts can cause short-term volatility but buyers and sellers ultimately adaptbusiness-money.com. The key for market participants is to keep a long-term perspective and not overreact to immediate changesbusiness-money.com. By the evening of November 26th, the Chancellor’s announcements will either validate the hopes or assuage the fears discussed above – or possibly deliver a surprise no one saw coming. Until then, the UK property market remains on budget watch, balancing its fundamental resilience against the “wait-and-see” sentiment that inevitably precedes major fiscal events. Each segment – from the first-time buyer scraping a deposit, to the landlord weighing their tax bill, to the prime buyer eyeing a trophy home – is poised for news, knowing that the policies unveiled could set the tone for 2026 and beyond.

How Willow Private Finance Can Help

At Willow Private Finance, we understand how fast-changing policy environments can disrupt plans—especially in the lead-up to a major Budget announcement. Whether you're a first-time buyer navigating tighter affordability, a landlord assessing your portfolio amid shifting tax policy, or a high-net-worth individual holding off on a prime purchase, we help you move forward with clarity and confidence.

As a whole-of-market, independent broker, we work closely with private banks, specialist lenders, and high street institutions to structure solutions that account for complex income, international assets, or unique timelines. Our team monitors fiscal and regulatory shifts closely, enabling us to advise clients on strategic mortgage placements that anticipate—not just react to—government changes. Whatever unfolds in the Autumn 2025 Budget, Willow is here to help you stay one step ahead.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: What impact could the 2025 Budget have on the UK housing market?
A: It depends on the policies announced. Speculation around stamp duty, landlord taxation, or housing incentives has led to a “wait-and-see” approach from buyers and investors.

Q2: Are landlords expecting more tax pressure in the Autumn Budget?
A: Yes, many fear new levies or a reduction in existing tax reliefs. This has dampened landlord confidence and slowed rental supply growth.

Q3: Is now a good time for first-time buyers to purchase a property?
A: Conditions are mixed. Prices are stable and mortgage rates are edging down, but affordability and deposit hurdles remain. Many are watching the Budget for support.

Q4: Why is the prime property market slowing ahead of the Budget?
A: Uncertainty over potential tax changes — such as higher stamp duty or capital gains reforms — has made high-net-worth buyers more cautious

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Q5: Could stamp duty be reformed in the Budget?
A: Industry voices are calling for reform, especially for first-time buyers and downsizers, but no official proposals have been confirmed yet.

Q6: How are lenders reacting to the current market conditions?
A: Most lenders are cautiously optimistic. Some have begun trimming rates, and mortgage availability has improved modestly since mid-year.

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