The Countdown to Bank of Englands May Rate Decision: Is Cheaper Borrowing on the Horizon?
Bank of England Base Rate Outlook – May 2025 Update
This article provides a deeper dive into the outlook for the Bank of England’s base rate ahead of the upcoming 8 May decision. We recap what markets are expecting (including the possibility of a rate cut), the economic signals behind those expectations, how mortgage lenders are already reacting, and what it all means for you as a borrower, developer, or property investor.
Market Expects a Rate Cut Amid Cooling Inflation
After over a year of rate hikes and a peak base rate above 5%, the tide has turned. Markets are broadly anticipating that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut the base rate at its meeting on 8 May, trimming it from the current 4.5% to 4.25%.
This expectation has strengthened in recent weeks as UK inflation has fallen rapidly, most recently to 2.6% in March, down from 3% in January. With inflation now much closer to the BoE’s 2% target, pressure has eased on policymakers to keep rates high. Indeed, at the BoE’s last meeting in March, one Monetary Policy Committee member already voted for a cut, reflecting confidence that the worst of inflation may be behind us.
Several economic indicators support the case for a potential rate cut. Economic growth has been lukewarm, UK GDP grew only about 0.1% in late 2024, essentially stagnating. Domestically, higher interest costs have been squeezing consumer and business activity, and a gentler rate could provide some relief.
On the global front, recent turmoil, including new US trade tariffs, has clouded the outlook and increased the risk of a global slowdown. Financial markets took note: in the wake of these developments, they became almost certain the BoE would act to support the economy by easing policy. In fact, interest rate swap markets implied essentially a 100% probability of a May rate cut to 4.25%.
Balancing this are still-elevated but improving inflation readings and hints of stronger wage growth later in the year, which the BoE will also weigh. Overall, however, the consensus is that a small cut now would help “stimulate economic activity in the face of a global slowdown” while keeping inflation on its downward trajectory.
Looking beyond May, market forecasts suggest further easing through 2025, albeit at a cautious pace. The BoE’s own survey of financial institutions in March showed a median expectation of about 0.50–0.75% of total rate cuts over the rest of this year.
Many analysts think the base rate could be around 3.5–3.75% by year-end, implying several quarter-point cuts in the coming months. It’s worth noting that these forecasts can shift with the economic data, for example, if inflation were to unexpectedly pick up later in 2025, the BoE might pause cutting.
But for now, markets and economists appear aligned in predicting that we have entered a gentle rate-cutting cycle. As one market commentator put it: “experts believe [rates] will drop further by the end of the year”(telegraph.co.uk). This is a notable turning point after the rapid tightening phase, and it sets the stage for how lenders and borrowers are positioning themselves.
Mortgage Lenders React with Rate Cuts and Easier Criteria
Mortgage lenders have wasted no time adjusting to the new rate outlook. In fact, in anticipation of a BoE cut, mortgage rates have tumbled in recent days. A mini price war has broken out among major banks and building societies, with all major UK lenders now offering fixed deals with interest rates under 4%.
Just a few months ago, such rates were virtually unheard of. Now, several high street lenders, from HSBC to Nationwide, have trimmed their fixed mortgage pricing, and a number of headline-grabbing sub-4% deals have surfaced.
These often come with conditions: many of the absolute lowest rates require a hefty deposit and sizable product fee. Lenders are still being selective, essentially reserving the best deals for the most qualified borrowers (for example, those with 40% equity or high incomes). Brokers note that while funding costs have come down, further substantial cuts to mortgage rates are not guaranteed especially if competition eases or if the BoE’s decisions deviate from expectations. Nonetheless, the direction is clear: the era of ever-rising mortgage costs has likely peaked, and lenders are now vying for business as borrowing costs drift lower.
Beyond cutting rates, banks and other mortgage providers are also easing some affordability criteria to accommodate more borrowers in this new environment. Notably, regulators are signaling support for a more flexible approach.
The Bank of England is consulting on relaxing a key mortgage lending cap – the rule that typically limits most residential loans to 4.5 times the borrower’s income. In the same vein, the Treasury and Financial Conduct Authority have recently encouraged lenders to loosen their mortgage rules slightly to help stimulate economic growth. In practice, this could mean some lenders will feel comfortable applying lower stress-test rates (since future base rates are expected to be lower) or allowing higher income multiples for certain clients.
We’re already seeing early signs of this: one specialist firm, April Mortgages, made headlines by offering select high-earning buyers the chance to borrow up to seven times their annual income on a long-term fixed deal. This is far above the usual cap and underscores how some niche lenders are pushing boundaries. While such generous terms remain the exception (and come with strict criteria like a 20% deposit and 10+ year fixed rate commitment), they illustrate the newfound confidence that interest rates are on a downward path.
In terms of product availability, the improving outlook has led to a broader range of options for borrowers. Lenders are reintroducing or promoting products that had fallen out of favor during the peak rate period. For example, tracker mortgages (loans that move directly with the base rate) are regaining popularity, since a potential series of BoE cuts would directly reduce their interest costs. Some borrowers who expect rates to fall further are opting for trackers or short-term fixed deals, aiming to benefit from any base rate reductions in 2025 rather than locking in a long rate now.
On the other end, there are also new long-term fixed mortgages (10, even 15 years) coming to market, giving clients the certainty of today’s rates for a decade or more. However, brokers caution that fixing for such a long period, right as rates appear to be trending down, could mean missing out on cheaper rates in the next few years.
The bottom line is that lenders are becoming more accommodating: rate cuts have begun, underwriting is slowly loosening, and a variety of mortgage products are available to suit different strategies. It’s a welcome change for borrowers, especially those in the property sector, after the challenging high-rate environment of the recent past.
What Borrowers and Property Investors Can Expect Next
As we await the BoE’s decision, it’s important to consider what lies ahead for borrowers, homeowners, and property investors.
Lending conditions are poised to gradually improve. If, as expected, a base rate cut is delivered on 8 May, banks will likely pass on at least part of that cut to consumers. Tracker mortgage holders and those on variable rates can anticipate a near-immediate dip in their payable rates (most tracker deals would fall in lockstep by 0.25%).
Even fixed-rate borrowers, who won’t see a change in existing payments, stand to gain when they look to refinance, the new fixed deals on offer later this year should be at lower rates than we’ve seen in recent months, provided the rate-cutting trend continues.
In short, the cost of borrowing for property is expected to edge down. High-net-worth individuals and developers might find financing larger projects slightly more affordable, and importantly, the predictability of a downward rate path can aid in planning. For instance, some development finance and buy-to-let loans that are linked to base rate would see interest margins ease, improving project viability and cash flows.
Borrowers should also find it a bit easier to secure loans as criteria loosen marginally. With regulators easing strict caps, mainstream lenders may incrementally raise the income multiples or lower the stress interest rates they use in affordability tests.
Property investors, such as buy-to-let landlords, could find that interest coverage ratio requirements (the cushion by which rent must exceed mortgage interest) become less of a hurdle as mortgage rates decline. We may also see more high loan-to-value products for homebuyers reappear, given lenders’ increased confidence in the direction of travel.
That said, all borrowers should remain prudent. While the lending climate is warming, banks will still want to see solid credit and sensible leverage. The most competitive rates will remain reserved for borrowers with strong profiles, for example, significant equity or provable income, especially in the HNW segment.
The housing market outlook under a gentle rate-cut scenario is cautiously optimistic. Cheaper mortgages tend to support buyer demand: indeed, house prices and mortgage lending have shown signs of recovery in recent months after cooling in 2024.
If interest rates continue to fall through 2025, more buyers who were previously priced out by high financing costs could re-enter the market, which would underpin property values. We’re not talking about a sudden boom, economic growth is still modest, and global uncertainties (like the mentioned trade issues) linger. But a stable or improving rate environment should at least boost confidence in the property sector.
Homeowners can feel some reassurance that the worst of the rate shock is likely over, and prospective buyers might see 2025 as a window where affordability starts to improve. Property investors could find that lower financing costs help offset other challenges such as high inflation in construction costs or rents needing to stay competitive. Overall, we anticipate a period of gradual normalisation: the frenzy of rate hikes is behind us, and both lenders and borrowers can plan with a bit more certainty.
In practical terms, now is a good time for borrowers and investors to review their finance strategies. If you have a mortgage or property loan maturing soon, start exploring options, you may be able to refinance at a lower rate or on more favorable terms than just a few months ago.
Those on longer fixed rates might simply keep a watching brief, knowing that if substantial cuts materialise, there could be opportunities to restructure debt or expand portfolios at cheaper rates later on. Developers and professional investors should stay in close contact with lenders and brokers, as new products (like the return of certain interest-only facilities or development loans) may emerge in a more benign rate climate. As always, maintaining a buffer for uncertainty is wise, the BoE will move in response to data, and if inflation were to surprise upwards, the pace of rate cuts could slow. But the tone from the central bank has been one of cautious optimism that policy can shift to supporting growth.
Bottom line: We expect the BoE’s May decision to set the tone for a more accommodative phase. Mortgage holders and property clients of Willow Private Finance can look forward to improving loan conditions, even if changes come incrementally.
Our team will continue monitoring the Bank’s announcements and market reactions. In the meantime, rest assured that we are here to help you navigate these shifts, whether it’s identifying the best refinancing deal or strategising your next property investment in this evolving rate landscape. By staying informed and proactive, you can make the most of the upcoming period of lower interest rates while keeping your long-term goals on track. It’s a moment for cautious optimism in property finance, and we’ll keep you updated every step of the way.
Sources: Current Bank Rate and MPC outlook; Inflation and market predictions.
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